What is the Case Fatality Rate and the Infection Fatality Rate and how do they differ? Which data, published by the WHO, sent the world into Covid-19 lockdown and was that a reasonable choice? How accurate were governments’ models predicting COVID deaths in relation to actual deaths? PANDA explains CFR, IFR and takes a look at the current statistics for C-19 mortality.
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South Africa possesses many extraordinary people few of us ever hear about until they get pushed into the spotlight by unusual circumstances. On the Alec Hogg Show, the founder of Biznews.com taps into one of the few consistently dissenting voices. In this podcast, we get to hear what makes PANDA co-ordinator Nick Hudson tick.
Which data points are relevant for tracing the impact of the pandemic? A quick guide to cases, deaths per million and causes of death in South Africa.
It’s a catastrophe. The lockdown could kill far more people than the virus.
“What has happened in the last four months is the greatest social injustice in SA’s history since apartheid,” says PANDA co-founder Nick Hudson. “The lockdown is based on bad science, poor modelling and even worse judgment on the part of the government.”
Shayne Krige, a lawyer with Panda, says it helps the government to show a large number of deaths. “To establish that the lockdown regulations are rational, the government has to show, on an ongoing basis, that Covid presents a serious risk. And in order to show that the draconian lockdown measures the government adopted were proportionate to the harm, the number of people who could die needs to be high,” he says.
The SAMRC report attempts to show that the coronavirus pandemic has led to almost 11,000 fatalities, more than three times the official death count. Our view is that this claim is false and that simple and logical adjustments to the data for known reporting issues cause the excess fatality number to align much more closely with recorded COVID-19 deaths.
A technical discussion between Nick Hudson, Piet Streicher and Miguel Lacerda of PANDA, about the Gompertz Curve and D-models statistical tools.